Young people like to ‘experiment and explore’ says one Department of Health report ... and they’re talking about sex!

As teenagers are eager to ‘get it on’ and not worry about numerous encounters, they are also less likely to protect themselves. And so we have more STIs diagnosed at GUM (genito-urinary medicine) clinics and teen pregnancies each year.

Most teenagers understand the dangers involved in life: drug addiction, alcoholism, solvent-abuse, but only 56% of teenage boys think that having sex without wearing a condom is ‘very risky’ compared with 80% of teenage girls. From: ‘My Body, My Self’.

The following activities demonstrate to pupils how
data comes about, how generalisations are made, and what happens when more than one probability is in play. The main activity should last approximately 45min and shows students the outcomes of risky sexual behaviour in terms of probabilities and that entering into a sexual relationship with one person means you are effectively having sex with all his/her previous partners too.

You may want to start off the lesson explaining some basics of statistics (as in the starter activity below), and leave enough time to cover some of the discussion points mentioned at the end. The whole lesson should last no longer than one hour. There are elements of mathematics in this activity that can be removed if wished.

The emphasis of this activity should be on the discussions that arise. You will have the opportunity to discuss that most contraceptive methods do not protect against STIs and that students can influence some of the risks they take (based on behaviour) whereas other risks are purely random (such as gambling on the Lottery).

Click here to see Science Curriculum & Useful Links for this activity
.

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activity as a PDF

Starter Activity

Ask the pupils to close their eyes and then read the following to them:

You are actually more likely to be struck by lightning next year (1 in 10 million chance) than win the National Lottery jackpot (1 in 14 million chance), and it is even more likely that the Earth will be hit by the 20 million tonne Apophis asteroid in 2036 (1 in 45,000 chance). Scary...

Get the students thinking about numbers: how do fractions change to percentages, and what does this mean when discussing proportions of the population... or in this case the numbers in the classroom, year group or school.

Funny statistics you might want to discuss
(from ‘The Best Book of Useless Information’ by Noel Botham) 

  • Every year over 8,000 people injure themselves with a toothpick.
  • 1 in every 200 people is a psychopath.
  • 72.4% of people place their toilet paper on the roll forward (with loose end over the roll, facing the user).
Start off by asking the students what they feel about this statistic:

20% of 15-16 year olds think they might like to start a business. (NESTA Future Innovators ‘Ready for the Future’ report).

How does this statistic apply to the classroom? 
  • Pretend that the whole class of 30 represents all the 15-16 year olds in the UK, and ask 6 individuals to stand up i.e. the ‘people-who-would-like-to-start-a-business’ corner. Is this true? Is it possible to make this generalisation? Just because these pupils move to the ‘business-generating’ area of the classroom based on current statistics doesn’t mean that they will all become the next Richard Branson, does it?
Now, what do they think of the following statistic?
  • Half of all people will acquire an STI at some point in their life. (Note: Current UK population= 60,776,238 - as estimated on July 2007)
Can we rely on probabilities to make our life’s decisions? What other factors come into play?

Which leads us onto the...

Main Activity

What You Will Need:

How The Game Is Played:

  • There are 12 card sheets i.e. enough for a class of 30 (you may not need to use them all), but feel free to print/photocopy more for larger groups.
  • Each sheet has eight cards on it, with three statements relating to gender, behaviour and risk/probability. One card is the ‘Master copy’.
  • Cut out the eight cards on each A4 sheet, and place into a mini envelope. Make a note on the front of each envelope of the gender mentioned on the card. (Unless you wish to allow for same sex encounters, in which case the class does not need to split into gender groups as mentioned later).
  • Split the class into groups of 3 (or 4 if a larger class). Each group of 3 students makes up an individual. Randomly assign each group an envelope.
At this point each group has their first discussion based on the following questions: (time can be given at the end of the lesson for all groups to feed back their thoughts to the rest of the class, or this can be a class activity and brainstorming session using a flipchart/whiteboard.)

- What does your group’s card say? What does the probability mean?

- Do you believe this probability? Yes/No? Why?

- Does this statistic apply to everyone? Does it scare you?

- What factors influence a person’s decision to have or not have sex?
  • Note: Some groups of male students may get ‘female’ cards and vice versa. Alert the students to this, to avoid any embarrassment.
  • One member from each group (or they can take it in turns for each meeting – see below) takes all their eight cards and goes to the front of the classroom. All these individuals are asked to separate into two groups dependent on which gender they were given: males to one side of the room, females to the other side.
  • Each of these students has to meet three other students (from the opposite side of the room). Each meeting represents a sexual encounter, but here they just shake hands!
  • In the first meeting the two students, shake hands and swap four cards (see diagram below for further details).
  • In the second meeting the two students shake hands and swap two of their original cards (the master copy allows them to remember which was their original card in case of doubt!) plus two cards gained from the first meeting (i.e. they’re passing on their sexual history too!)
  • In the third meeting, each student shakes hands with a new partner and passes on a copy of each card they have.
  • Those students who have done the swapping now take all the cards they have back to their groups. They have had three sexual encounters. Now they lay the cards out on the table...
Each group has a second discussion:

What does each card say?

Would they have sex with each of those people mentioned on the new cards, taking into consideration:

  • Their own situation (the card they started with) – is it responsible to have sex without letting their partner know their state of health?
  • The history of their partner – would you want to know this information? Would you feel comfortable asking?

What do you think would happen to the probability of you catching an STI or getting someone/becoming pregnant, if your partner cares about you?

Do you have a choice as to whether you have sex with each of these partners? Why would you not have a choice?

Think about real life now:

  • Would one person only have one STI at a time?

  • If a couple is using other methods of contraception, should they use condoms if they trust each other?

  • Imagine you are in a relationship. What would matter most to you? (Trust, feelings, values, culture, background, peer pressure, love?)

  • Since many people in the real world are infected with an STI without showing any signs (you would not be able to ‘read the cards’ and decide) so what would you do?

You can then finish off the activity asking them about some statements:

How do the following statements make you feel?

Condoms very rarely fail, it is more likely to be user’s inexperience (14% of the time – i.e. when first starting to use a condom, or under the influence of illegal drugs and alcohol).

Condoms offer less protection against herpes and genital warts (HPV) (i.e. those not transmitted via bodily fluids).

Having one STI means you are more likely to get other infections, and just because you have had one STI doesn’t mean you cannot get it again.

Not everyone is at equal risk for STIs (so should we extrapolate probabilities from generalised data?).

In real life, without effective contraception females could get pregnant (or a male could get a female pregnant) and pass on an STI in the
SAME sexual encounter.

Only abstinence offers 100% protection from pregnancy and STIs.



Then ... at the SECOND MEETING:



Then ... at the THIRD MEETING:


Extension: ‘It could happen to you!’

Have a look at the ‘Mathematics Guide Sheet’ at the probability tree diagrams. For those pupils who want to do some maths, they can fill in the blank probability tree using their collected cards, as described and multiply up the probabilities (decimals) to find out their worst case scenario (ONE path, although there are MANY possibilities).

What do they think of the resulting probability? Might seem low, but what about the likelihood of winning the lottery jackpot (1 in 14million) – how is it that we believe winning the jackpot is so possible that we’re willing to spend lots of money on tickets, but when it comes to catching an STI or getting pregnant we think, ‘Oh that won’t happen to us! ’ We also need to consider that STI statistics are based on reported cases. If people don’t report it, we won’t know... so we don’t accurately know just how easy it might be for some STIs to be caught, or the likelihood of pregnancy. So can we trust these statistics and generalisations and live our lives around them?


Alternative Mathematics: Getting your brain into gear!

Ask the students in each group to pick one of their cards that has a probability of catching an STI (
probability a), and one card that has a probability of getting pregnant (probability b). For example, probability a = 0.66 chance of getting infected with Chlamydia, and probability b = 0.3 chance of getting pregnant.

Imagine, as a female you wouldn’t want to catch an STI or get pregnant; and as a male you wouldn’t want to catch an STI (and of course if you are caring or worried about becoming a father you wouldn’t want the girl to get pregnant)...

Let's take the girl's point of view:

- The probability she doesn’t catch Chlamydia is: 1 – a: 1 - 0.66 = 0.34

- The probability she doesn’t get pregnant is: 1- b: 1 - 0.30 = 0.70

- On her first encounter, the probability she doesn’t get infected with Chlamydia or get pregnant is: (1 – 0.66) x (1 – 0.30) = 0.24

- After n number of encounters her probability of getting infected with Chlamydia or get pregnant is the same as the above, to the power of n: ((1-a)(1-b))n 

- Which means that after
eight encounters: ((1 – 0.66)(1 – 0.30))8  = 0.00001026, so the probability that she DOES get Chlamydia AND pregnant is: 1 – 0.00001026 = 0.99 = 99%!

- The probability rises the more risks she takes.

Questions for the students:
What do you think of that? But even then, how do you know that in your
first encounter you won’t get pregnant or catch Chlamydia?


Non-Maths Extension Activity:

Ask pupils in their groups to use some of the Internet sites given in the ‘Useful Links’ section to find out something they never knew about sexual health and statistics and discuss these findings in a Jeremy Kyle style chat show!.


Download this activity as a PDF